By Neel Shelat
Major League Soccer (MLS) is quite unique among the top ten men’s leagues in the world. For one, it is the only one to follow a knockout playoff format to decide its champion, adding a completely different challenge for teams going for the crown. It is also the biggest of the top ten leagues in terms of number of competitors by quite some margin, with a 30th team set to join next year. The fact that well over half of the league qualifies for the playoffs is another oddity.
Put together, all of these factors make it quite difficult to rank the best teams in the division using results on paper alone. The element of variability the playoffs add mean that the best teams can easily get knocked out following an off-day or two, while an otherwise ordinary team might even end up winning the title if they hit a streak of form at the right time. The fact that so many teams qualify for the playoffs also leads to sides higher up in the table potentially taking things a bit easier towards the end of the season. When the playoffs approach, it makes perfect sense for such sides to prioritize the decisive matches and rotate in the effectively meaningless final rounds of regular season fixtures.
So, Global Football Rankings’ Elo-based model can be a valuable tool to filter through all the noise and find out who the best teams in MLS really are.
#8: FC Cincinnati (78.5)
2023 MLS Supporters’ Shield winners FC Cincinnati begin the top eight, having dropped down a touch as they only finished fifth in the standings this time and failed to get past their first playoff opponents. They also could not get past the Round of 16 in the CONCACAF Champions Cup and Leagues Cup, so they have not had a great time in knockout action in 2024.
Nevertheless, they have reasons to be optimistic about next year. Head coach Pat Noonan’s 3-4-1-2 system has continued to suit the squad well, with key player Luciano Acostra enjoying yet another sensational MLS season as he registered 14 goals and 17 assists and only finished behind one Lionel Messi in terms of regular season goal involvements. FC Cincinnati are also reportedly set to smash the MLS transfer record to sign Kévin Denkey in the upcoming window, so their attack could well get better yet.
#7: LA Galaxy (78.8)
Despite finishing second in the West this year and only missing out on top spot on goal difference, the LA Galaxy are seventh in our rankings. That can largely be put down to the hangover in our model from a terrible 2023 season in which they finished second last in the Conference, but they have been much improved this year.
While former Barcelona attacking midfielder Riqui Puig has remained a key figure, new additions around him have helped turn the team’s fortunes around. Brazilian winger Gabriel Pec was recently named MLS’ Newcomer of the Year for a stellar debut campaign that has seen him register 32 goal involvements – the same tally as Lionel Messi has managed. On the other wing, former Genk winger Joseph Paintsil has proven to be a great signing as well thanks to his lively on-ball qualities. The Galaxy also made a big signing in the summer as Borussia Dortmund legend Marco Reus joined the club, right on time to potentially make a telling impact in the playoffs.
Head coach Greg Vanney also deserves credit for getting the balance of the side right and implementing a transition-based playing style that gets the best out of these attacking stars, so the LA Galaxy are in quite a good moment right now and could well shoot further up our rankings in the near future.
#6: Houston Dynamo (79.3)
The Houston Dynamo are up in sixth despite failing to outscore their opponents in any of their five knockout ties in 2024. The big reason behind that is their terrible penalty shootout record, but they have been pretty decent in regulation play.
After winning the CONCACAF Champions Cup Round of 32 tie against St. Louis City on away goals, the Dynamo lost by a one-goal margin to would-be finalists Columbus Crew in the following round. They were eliminated from the US Open Cup against USL Championship side Detroit City SC after an epic 22 penalty shootout, conceded a stoppage-time equalizer and lost on spot-kicks against Toluca in the Leagues Cup, and lost both MLS playoffs Round One matches on penalties as well.
#5: Orlando City (79.9)
Orlando City come in at an impressive fifth. They are quite an interesting side for various reasons, not least their consistency as they have made the MLS playoffs in every season after 2019. They finished as high up as second in the Supporters’ Shield standings last time out, building on their US Open Cup win in 2022.
Colombian head coach Óscar Pareja has overseen this very successful period at the club, and his presence likely is a factor behind the strong South American contingent in their squad. This season, they have fielded as many as 13 different players from CONMEBOL nations in MLS, including standout attackers Facundo Torres and Iván Angulo, and goalkeeper Pedro Gallese.
#4: Seattle Sounders (80.4)
The Seattle Sounders are fourth in our rankings thanks in no small part to their strong defense. Their tally of 35 goals conceded in the regular season was the lowest in MLS, and they also kept the most clean sheets with 14. The two-time MLS Cup winners have not gotten past the Conference semifinal since their run of four finals in five seasons between 2016 and 2020, so they will hope to change that this term.
Long-serving head coach Brian Schmetzer will have to try and get the most out of a limited attack to give his side the best chance of beating the big-hitters. The Sounders were only 20th in the league in terms of goals scored, and do not have any significant threats in their front line besides 30-year-old strike partners Jordan Morris and Albert Rusnák.
#3: LAFC (81.1)
LAFC have been incredibly consistent in competing at the top in the last couple of years, so they are deservedly on our podium. Since 2022, their record across various competitions makes for mightily impressive reading. They won the MLS Cup that year, got to the final of both the CONCACAF Champions Cup and MLS in 2023, won the US Open Cup, and reached another final in the Leagues Cup in 2024.
Steve Cherundolo has been the mastermind behind this period of constant success, as his versatility in terms of formations as well as styles of play have helped LAFC excel in all situations. That is why they were able to top the standings in the Western Conference this year, and they have to be considered among the favorites in the playoffs.
#2: Inter Miami (82.0)
Despite putting together a record-breaking MLS campaign with an all-time high tally of 74 points in the regular season, Inter Miami miss out on the top spot in our rankings. Second place obviously is not at all a bad place for Gerardo Martino to leave them, especially after their lowly 27th-place finish in the Supporters’ Shield standings last year.
Of course, attacking superstars Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez attract the most attention, but legendary midfielder Sergio Busquets was arguably the key player for Miami this season. Surely, it was no coincidence that they lost their Round One playoff tie against Atlanta United in his absence. So, finding the right balance across the side to avoid overrelying on the Spaniard could be the defining task for the club’s next head coach.
#1: Columbus Crew (83.2)
Although the Columbus Crew will not be able to successfully defend their MLS Cup crown having been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, they still are the best team in the league as far as our model is concerned. Their mighty record in all competitions this year makes that very hard to argue against, as they reached their first-ever continental final in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, won the Leagues Cup and Campeones Cup and only finished behind Inter Miami in MLS.
Beyond just results, though, the Crew also are one of the most tactically interesting sides not just in the league but all around the world. Wilfried Nancy’s meticulous tactics have played a huge part in guiding the club to a period of unprecedented success, so it will be very hard for anyone to knock them off their perch as long as he is around.
Playoff Comparision
There is a nice 4-4 split between the East and the West in our top eight, but how does that stack up against this year’s playoff brackets?
Looking at the conference semifinalists in our rankings, we find that only half of them are in the top eight of our MLS club rankings. In the east, only Orlando City have managed to progress as the Columbus Crew, Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati all fell in the first round. The victors – both New York clubs and Atlanta United – occupy the mid-table spots in our rankings.
The only outliers in the West are Minnesota United, who are the seventh-best club in the conference based on our rankings but find themselves in the semifinals. Three of the top four have progressed, namely both LA clubs and the Seattle Sounders.